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Current Page: 41 of 45
Re: News and Stuff!
Stu69 30 March, 2020 18:42
Perhaps it is F1 that is in trouble as a whole. Other than Williams going bust potentially, will Renault Honda Fiat and Merc stick with it? Which sponsors generally will want to blow millions on F1.

As an aside will Tesla survive this??

Re: News and Stuff!
speed 30 March, 2020 19:16
Quote:
Stu69
As an aside will Tesla survive this??

Worldwide people are reporting cleaner air because of lock-downs. If Tesla can weather through it, it might be the biggest gainer. Also means, this can hasten the death of the ICE as we know it.

Re: News and Stuff!
Damon96 31 March, 2020 20:07
Quote:
CLOVERLEAF 888
yeah Damon.... I mentioned the following earlier about 2 season with the current car.
Is this really good for us. We will probably be running at the back for the next two seasons now. That could break us. Sponsors will leave. George will probably definitely be gone now after this season. I think we are in big trouble tbh. Finances will dwindle further and maybe job cuts will be forced upon Claire as race meeting prize money is hard to come by. Also are sponsors obligated to pay the full amount when their is no racing. ??

Sorry hadn't spotted, completely agree with your points, there is no way George will stay with us, it will kill his career. Best we would hope for would be a swap with Mercedes with Bottas coming back but that seems unlikely. We've also burnt through so many pay drivers, there is only so many people who will pay good money to be at the back of the grid. This delay/frozen chassis is a disaster for Williams, while over at Force Stroll they'll be laughing all the way to probably 4th for two seasons in a row.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 31/03/2020 20:08 by Damon96.

Re: News and Stuff!
Damon96 31 March, 2020 20:19
Quote:
Stu69
Perhaps it is F1 that is in trouble as a whole. Other than Williams going bust potentially, will Renault Honda Fiat and Merc stick with it? Which sponsors generally will want to blow millions on F1.
As an aside will Tesla survive this??

Can't see Merc quitting, at least not till after 2021 as they are now pretty much on for another two titles. Renault though, if they have a bad 2020, knowing they are stuck with a chassis that would also be bad in 2021, they might quit. Advertising in general is going to be down for 2021 and Formula E is attracting more and more manufacturers so F1 is going to find it tough.

Tesla have around $6 billion in cash reserves and the future is electric so I think they'll be ok. Will be interesting as VW and Merc etc start to release major electric ranges if sales stall for Tesla, then investors may get spooked a bit.

Re: News and Stuff!
Stu69 01 April, 2020 21:07
Can't see Merc quitting, at least not till after 2021 as they are now pretty much on for another two titles. Renault though, if they have a bad 2020, knowing they are stuck with a chassis that would also be bad in 2021, they might quit. Advertising in general is going to be down for 2021 and Formula E is attracting more and more manufacturers so F1 is going to find it tough.

Tesla have around $6 billion in cash reserves and the future is electric so I think they'll be ok. Will be interesting as VW and Merc etc start to release major electric ranges if sales stall for Tesla, then investors may get spooked a bit.[/quote]


Yes Damon, Renault!! They are the weak link, they might just jump ship. It probably depends if we have a “brief” recession or a full blown depression. Electric is the future BUT the Tesla future is very expensive whereas the Chinese / Korean version of electric is much much cheaper all be it not as cutting edge.

I am already seeing a “credit crunch” in my markets. Previous lines of credit accounts to buy products are becoming Proforma / cash only. if this starts to happen in a bigger scale then all hell will break loose!

Good to discuss!

Re: News and Stuff!
AlanJones 01 April, 2020 23:37
As said before; electric propulsion by static electricity in batteries is a dead end 20 years from now. Hydrogen is the answer.




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Re: News and Stuff!
Mikef1 03 April, 2020 09:35
Quote:
AlanJones
As said before; electric propulsion by static electricity in batteries is a dead end 20 years from now. Hydrogen is the answer.

Sooner. Unless there is a whole lot more Lithium the world doesn't know about. And the carbon footprint to build electric cars is and always will be a disgrace.

Re: News and Stuff!
Stu69 03 April, 2020 20:18
Now we have all learnt to work And live from home.... we don’t need cars!!

Re: News and Stuff!
SydneyF1Fan 03 April, 2020 23:25
Quote:
Stu69
Now we have all learnt to work And live from home.... we don’t need cars!!

At the same time the petrol price went down too.

Bummer!!



http://i807.photobucket.com/albums/yy358/SydneyF1Fan/SydneyF1FanSignatureWinner-v3.gif

Re: News and Stuff!
Stu69 04 April, 2020 22:35
Quote:
SydneyF1Fan
Quote:
Stu69
Now we have all learnt to work And live from home.... we don’t need cars!!

At the same time the petrol price went down too.

Bummer!!

Yes bummer!

Re: News and Stuff!
Stu69 11 April, 2020 06:16
[www.autosport.com]

Oh dear. Needs must I suppose but just one step closer to the end of being owned by Sir Frank and family unless results get better.

Re: News and Stuff!
j-s 11 April, 2020 06:32
Ouch

Re: News and Stuff!
Damon96 11 April, 2020 08:07
They have literally mortgaged all the family silver. I guess if it all goes wrong they probably don’t want the cars anyway but it’s not good. Both Zac Brown and Ross Brawn have talked of 4 teams going under, McLaren, Renault and Williams all furloughed staff. F1 will have a choice soon, they either go the way of DTM or they take on Red Bull and Ferrari and bring in big budget restrictions.

Re: News and Stuff!
ghettonation 11 April, 2020 09:48
[gptoday.com]

Ok so if the team defaults on the loan Latifi pretty much owns Williams. Anyone else here thinks that maybe a good thing. New owner ,fresh ideas?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/04/2020 09:49 by ghettonation.

Re: News and Stuff!
IanSmithISA 11 April, 2020 12:09
Good morning,

Most of the reports seem to be the same source repeated and nobody seems to know the amount borrowed. Someone guessed £50m but that seems a risky high ratio for the lender

With WAE mostly no longer available as security, as most of it has been sold, there is the F1 team and the Heritage Assests to offer as security.

The Heritage Assests are carried as being worth £20m but as security I wouldn't have thought that they were worth much more than a quarter of that. From HSBC's perspective they are probably a pretty useless security, how would they realise their value?

WGPE land and buildings are worth £30m and plant and machinery £9m, clearly the open market value of plant and machinery is hard to tell.

Then there is the value of WGPE's F1 entry and the ability of a new owner to receive prize money from the first season that they own the team.

However this only has value if the team is sold as an ongoing operation and the prize money is significantly greater than the debts and a new owner can be found quickly enough so that the entry does not expire due to non participation.

So I would argue that the entry is worthless as security to HSBC but not to Latrus

Looking at [beta.companieshouse.gov.uk] it seems that the same assets have been offered as security to both HSBC and Latrus.

Had the loans come from only HSBC then I would has thought that the maximum would have been around £15m, basically this would have been a re-arrangement of existing facilities.

The fact that the WAE sale hadn't enabled Williams to clear their debt along with extensive uncertainty about this and next year's income would surely be a concern for HSBC.

If Latrus has made a big loan, an emotional commitment with the possible intent of acquiring the F1 team then the loan could easily be for any amount. It would effectively be the purchase price paid before the team is put up for sale.

If there is a big loan and Williams can't afford to service it which seems quite possible then Latrus may say "Forget the loan, just give us Sir Frank's WAE (edit 13/4) WGPE shares and we will call it quits"

There is of course a risk to this, Sir Frank could say enforce your security I am not giving you my shares, I want £x Million, during this debate WGPE closes losing its entry.

I also note that WGPH no longer have any secured loans, all loans are secured against WGPE assets, I am not sure of the significance of this other that it might suggest that it is now just a shell for the public shareholding of WGPE with no future ambitions or it is a shell that wants to expand and doesn't want to be brought down by WGPE.

Quote:
ghettonation
http://gptoday.com/full_story/view/715272/Williams_loan_is_for_just_50m/
Ok so if the team defaults on the loan Latifi pretty much owns Williams. Anyone else here thinks that maybe a good thing. New owner ,fresh ideas?
But he doesn't own WGPE the legal entity that has the F1 entry.

Overall I do find it depressing that the WGPE didn't say we will use all of the WAE sale money to reduce/pay off debt and we will struggle on with what we have got, especially as we know that development for 2021 is heavily restricted.

The last time what WGPE took out big loans even the success of Williams Martini years wasn't enough to clear off the debt.

What's happening with Brad Hollinger, he doesn't seem to be involved too much, so will we see his shares in someone else's hands?

Bye

Ian



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 13/04/2020 05:06 by IanSmithISA.

Re: News and Stuff!
Stu69 11 April, 2020 12:49
Decent synopsis Ian!

Re: News and Stuff!
SydneyF1Fan 12 April, 2020 10:53
Pretty ugly, whichever way you cut it.

I actually think the whole of F1 is at high risk of folding. I highly doubt we will have any races this season and high chance that a few teams will go bust or pull out, including Renault, Honda and possibly Merc.

Japan now expressing doubt that Olympics will happen in July 2021 and, if no vaccine until late 2021, F1 promoters unlikely to bear risk of holding races in the 2021 season either.

Teams will be obliged to shut down for a prolonged period, with staff layoffs, including drivers, who will be out of contract, and loss of IP and development. Liberty Media's F1 investment could fold with a very uncertain future for all involved.

Who would have predicted this dire situation just 1 month ago on the eve of the Melbourne GP?



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Re: News and Stuff!
IanSmithISA 13 April, 2020 06:15
Good morning,

On the subject of F1 folding completely I am quite calm, as I don't see the situation as anywhere nearly as dire as others do.

Without wishing to rehash the Covid 19 thread, I remain convinced that although it is a real virus with a genuine risk of causing death it has been over hyped.

The BBC's web site has this article [www.bbc.co.uk] which is much less dramatic than much of its coverage.

The BBC is a very cautious news media, although it is not a government controlled news organisation it does operate under a government charter and it is funded by a licence fee collected from pretty much anyone with a TV and has the force of UK criminal law to ensure payment.

Just for the sake of clarity, I am pretty certain that I have had it, I am an enthusiastic cyclist and one morning I found that I could only just climb the stairs in the house, when I got upstairs it took nearly a minute to get my breath back.

What was really odd was that I had the feeling in the lungs that you get when you are carbon dioxide saturated, as in holding your breath, rather than the lack of oxygen feeling you get when you go up a steep hill too fast. Breathing deeply didn't help and it didn't matter how much air I was taking in, it seemed like I had already hit the oxygen/CO2 exchange limit for my lungs.

In the UK and as far as I can tell in much of Europe we have seen something pretty unusual, the political class has handed responsibility for managing the issue over to medical specialists.

The politician's job of balancing risk and reward to society has been sidestepped.

If you look at the UK's Health Secretary Matt Hancock (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Hancock) you see a youngish man, 42, with a traditional Conservative politician's background, a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics, followed by a job with the Bank of England as an economist and then political jobs.

The PM, Boris Johnson seems to have managed to completely duck his role and has successfully presented himself as bravely coping with Covid 19 rather than a PM who is absent during a crisis.

Give him a couple of weeks to recover and he will return and along with President Trump will announce that thanks to their leadership the problem is mostly over and we can start to return to normal.

I know that some think that I overstate the economic costs over the health costs, but the UK national debt is about £1,821 billion and there are about 30 million people working in the UK, so it is about £61,000 per working person.

Various government assistance schemes as expected to cost at least £375 billion or about another 20% of the national debt. Once the hype over these has died down, these scheme are being shown to be of only limited use.

I truly believe that within the next few months we will see air travel restored to close to a full free market status and within that period partial travel based on self assessment (I have had it and have recovered) will be restored between many locations.

However you interpret the risk it is a fact that as time goes by more and more people are exposed to it, what portion of the population will have been exposed to it by the end of May/June/July? I genuinely don't know but it must increase over time unless you believe that the virus can be totally eradicated over the next few weeks.

In the UK the press is starting to look at the reality and although most haven't yet got the nerve, it does seem likely that fairly soon we will start to see articles stating that the cost of the current Covid 19 measures is around £4,000 per month per working person (that is working before the Covid 19 layoffs).

I suspect that once this number becomes public attitudes will shift dramatically.

This is before any bailouts to the road haulage, airlines, horticulture, universities and other industries.

Yes even universities!

Over the last decade or so and lot of 2nd rate educational establishments have become universities and expanded massively. Before 1998 the UK government picked up the cost of providing university education, after this date students had to pay fees which are usually at the cap of just over £9K per year.

By the start of October everything will be back to close to normal simply because there is no other option.

Bye

Ian



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 13/04/2020 06:34 by IanSmithISA.

Re: News and Stuff!
IanSmithISA 13 April, 2020 10:36
Good morning,

Quote:
Stu69
Decent synopsis Ian!

What I did try to workout but couldn't find the numbers for is the salary of the top managers/directors over the last couple of years, times when "its a reward for success" can't be claimed, and looked at these against the amount borrowed.

It is quite common in the UK to see companies borrow to pay senior management salaries, its not usually laid out or explained in that way but that is the reality of what is happening.

The underlying concept is that a group of managers believe they are so good/entitled that they feel that they are worth specific salaries regardless of whether or not the company can afford them.

If after the 2018 season Williams had adopted a policy of we have a salary cap of say £150k what would the debt look like now and who would the team have lost?

In 2018 there were 862 employees across the group with a payroll cost of £70m or an average salary of £82k, of this £7.5m was paid to the directors, £4.4m going to one unspecified director.

I have mentioned before that I am confused if this is to B Hollinger as a sort of replacement for dividends or to someone else.

Taking the £7.5m off still gives a payroll of £62.5m and an average salary of £72k, it seems highly unlikely that the typical salary is really anywhere near £72k

Take £7.5m a year off the payroll (after directors salaries) for two years and you have the £15m of debt exchanged for a payroll of £55m reducing the average salary to £55k.

So it seems pretty likely that a salary cap of £150k over 2019 and 2020 would have eaten really heavily into the debt leaving the team much healthier at the cost of the possible loss of a few high earners.

I suspect that may have been a good long term choice.

Bye

Ian



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 13/04/2020 11:11 by IanSmithISA.

Re: News and Stuff!
Stu69 13 April, 2020 16:19
That’s Ian saying that he really didn’t think we were all going to die anyway so why worry because we will all be statistics at some point!!! Ha ha ha

“Only“ another 700 dead today in UK. The numbers are falling! (Although there might be a bank holiday lag!!)

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