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Re: O/T Coronavirus and F1
Stu69 28 March, 2020 09:26
This is for Ian or anyone else who I isn’t that worried About corono at the moment.

A letter to the UK from Italy: this is what we know about your future
An author in Rome describes what to expect based on her experiences of lockdown
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Francesca Melandri

The acclaimed Italian novelist Francesca Melandri, who has been under lockdown in Rome for almost three weeks due to the Covid-19 outbreak, has written a letter to fellow Europeans “from your future”, laying out the range of emotions people are likely to go through over the coming weeks.

I am writing to you from Italy, which means I am writing from your future. We are now where you will be in a few days. The epidemic’s charts show us all entwined in a parallel dance.

We are but a few steps ahead of you in the path of time, just like Wuhan was a few weeks ahead of us. We watch you as you behave just as we did. You hold the same arguments we did until a short time ago, between those who still say “it’s only a flu, why all the fuss?” and those who have already understood.


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As we watch you from here, from your future, we know that many of you, as you were told to lock yourselves up into your homes, quoted Orwell, some even Hobbes. But soon you’ll be too busy for that.

First of all, you’ll eat. Not just because it will be one of the few last things that you can still do.

You’ll find dozens of social networking groups with tutorials on how to spend your free time in fruitful ways. You will join them all, then ignore them completely after a few days.

You’ll pull apocalyptic literature out of your bookshelves, but will soon find you don’t really feel like reading any of it.

You’ll eat again. You will not sleep well. You will ask yourselves what is happening to democracy.

You’ll have an unstoppable online social life – on Messenger, WhatsApp, Skype, Zoom…

You will miss your adult children like you never have before; the realisation that you have no idea when you will ever see them again will hit you like a punch in the chest.

Old resentments and falling-outs will seem irrelevant. You will call people you had sworn never to talk to ever again, so as to ask them: “How are you doing?” Many women will be beaten in their homes.

You will wonder what is happening to all those who can’t stay home because they don’t have one. You will feel vulnerable when going out shopping in the deserted streets, especially if you are a woman. You will ask yourselves if this is how societies collapse. Does it really happen so fast? You’ll block out these thoughts and when you get back home you’ll eat again.

You will put on weight. You’ll look for online fitness training.

You’ll laugh. You’ll laugh a lot. You’ll flaunt a gallows humour you never had before. Even people who’ve always taken everything dead seriously will contemplate the absurdity of life, of the universe and of it all.

You will make appointments in the supermarket queues with your friends and lovers, so as to briefly see them in person, all the while abiding by the social distancing rules.

You will count all the things you do not need.

The true nature of the people around you will be revealed with total clarity. You will have confirmations and surprises.

Literati who had been omnipresent in the news will disappear, their opinions suddenly irrelevant; some will take refuge in rationalisations which will be so totally lacking in empathy that people will stop listening to them. People whom you had overlooked, instead, will turn out to be reassuring, generous, reliable, pragmatic and clairvoyant.

Those who invite you to see all this mess as an opportunity for planetary renewal will help you to put things in a larger perspective. You will also find them terribly annoying: nice, the planet is breathing better because of the halved CO2 emissions, but how will you pay your bills next month?

You will not understand if witnessing the birth of a new world is more a grandiose or a miserable affair.

You will play music from your windows and lawns. When you saw us singing opera from our balconies, you thought “ah, those Italians”. But we know you will sing uplifting songs to each other too. And when you blast I Will Survive from your windows, we’ll watch you and nod just like the people of Wuhan, who sung from their windows in February, nodded while watching us.

Many of you will fall asleep vowing that the very first thing you’ll do as soon as lockdown is over is file for divorce.

Many children will be conceived.

Your children will be schooled online. They’ll be horrible nuisances; they’ll give you joy.

Elderly people will disobey you like rowdy teenagers: you’ll have to fight with them in order to forbid them from going out, to get infected and die.

You will try not to think about the lonely deaths inside the ICU.

You’ll want to cover with rose petals all medical workers’ steps.

You will be told that society is united in a communal effort, that you are all in the same boat. It will be true. This experience will change for good how you perceive yourself as an individual part of a larger whole.

Class, however, will make all the difference. Being locked up in a house with a pretty garden or in an overcrowded housing project will not be the same. Nor is being able to keep on working from home or seeing your job disappear. That boat in which you’ll be sailing in order to defeat the epidemic will not look the same to everyone nor is it actually the same for everyone: it never was.

At some point, you will realise it’s tough. You will be afraid. You will share your fear with your dear ones, or you will keep it to yourselves so as not to burden them with it too.

You will eat again.

We’re in Italy, and this is what we know about your future. But it’s just small-scale fortune-telling. We are very low-key seers.

If we turn our gaze to the more distant future, the future which is unknown both to you and to us too, we can only tell you this: when all of this is over, the world won’t be the same.

© Francesca Melandri 2020

Re: O/T Coronavirus and F1
SydneyF1Fan 28 March, 2020 09:42
Ian, when you say 900 Italian deaths should be reported as 180, are you suggesting that the other 720 died from other medical causes, not COVID-19, and that they would have died anyway if they hadn't been infected?

If so, I find that hard to believe looking at the scenes of devastation in that country. Similarly with Spain and the USA.

I don't think you can compare this with AIDS. Yes, there was mass hysteria at the time, as there was no cure, but it required physical transmission (not airbourne) and it primarily affected young sexually-active people and intravenous drug users, the opposite demographic to COVID-19.

The most optimistic person in the planet about Coronavirus is the leader of the free world. Unfortunately, I believe he is totally deluded, no doubt driven by the loss in his personal wealth and ratings for his reelection campaign.

The death toll in the USA is about to soar to tragic levels in the next few weeks and there is absolutely nothing they can do about it now. They've left it too late through his denial, ignorance and outright negligence.



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Re: O/T Coronavirus and F1
Marco Cardoso 28 March, 2020 09:47
I just read an article about the Brasilian President Bolsonaro downplaying the virus and saying he doubts the numbers are true in Italy and even in Brasil, hes saying that it's just a little flu and it will pass and is ordering governors to open schools and comerce like normal, he says that brasilians are a diferent race and this virus won't get to them, all this coming from an head of state is very worrying.
Me I think in reality the numbers are even higher, because many peolpe died one or two weeks before the confirmation of the virus in the country and were not accounted as coronavirus deaths but pneumonia.
In Portugal one week after the first case all the pacients in the ICU with respiratory illnesses were tested and the doctors discovered about 30 more cases that were beying followed and pneumonia.



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Re: O/T Coronavirus and F1
CLOVERLEAF 888 28 March, 2020 11:08
Great post Stu. A lot to think about.

Re: O/T Coronavirus and F1
SydneyF1Fan 28 March, 2020 11:56
Exactly Marco - there is a big lag between reported cases and deaths.

There is a lack of comprehensive testing, especially in the US, so reported cases are significantly understated.

That's why the USA is going to be a disaster zone in a few weeks. True numbers are understated. Many people are already infected and unknowingly passing it on to family members and friends even in self-isolation, so deaths will escalate tragically in the next few days and weeks.



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Re: O/T Coronavirus and F1
rpaloschi 28 March, 2020 12:21
I was born in Brazil and fear for family and friends there... it will be a massacre. sad smiley First seeing my people elect a fascist, ignorant and incompetent like that (in)human being... it couldnt happen at any worst moment.

Re: O/T Coronavirus and F1
Marco Cardoso 28 March, 2020 12:45
I´m not a scientist or a doctor, I just try to use commom sense.

We had Italy and Spain one or two weeks before us and it seems the politicians here learned something with it.

In Portugal the governament wen´t in a positive way about this crisis, they listened to the health and science advices and took action, wich I think was the best way to deal with this virus.

“I'm sorry, but some people are going to die, it's life. You cannot stop a car factory because there are deaths in traffic."..."for 90% of the population, this will be a cold or nothing. " President Bolsonaro quote.

In the US and Brasil, these are the countries I follow the most,wen´t in a completely diferent way from here and took fewer measures about this corona virus, if not for regional governors, the presidents choose the money and economies way, and now blame China for this situation, this could have started in any other place.

Unfortunatly in the Americas the virus is just staring to get to is peak and infections are through the roof in the US and Brasil isn´t so high because they aren´t making enough tests to the population or the truth would be much wors´t.

I can only say that I hope they ´re heath sistem can handle what´s coming and the casualties of the corona virus is as minimized as posible.

Stay safe guys.

Marco



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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 28/03/2020 19:14 by Marco Cardoso.

Re: O/T Coronavirus and F1
speed 28 March, 2020 23:40
I am from India (though living in America). Even though the country has shutdown, I think it's too late. I think even the government knows that. Everyone there knows that there's no way to defend when you have a massive (mostly poor) population & scarce health services. So I think they have already gone to plan B - save the cities, the financial hubs, the places which have some notion of healthcare. Rest is up to god, because the politicians are mostly useless (almost everywhere). I hope this virus does not like heat - that's our only hope. The usual hot Indian summer.

Re: O/T Coronavirus and F1
IanSmithISA 30 March, 2020 08:21
Good morning,

Quote:
SydneyF1Fan
Ian, when you say 900 Italian deaths should be reported as 180, are you suggesting that the other 720 died from other medical causes, not COVID-19, and that they would have died anyway if they hadn't been infected?

As a general statistical statement yes, Prof Ricciardi is a good starting point if you want to search.

Clearly it can't be applied to a individual day's stats and it may be understated because of age differences in populations and it should be 270 not 180 etc but the basic stats collection point stands.

As to the more general point that I don't "get it", I do "get it" I just have a made different balance of risks assessment.

Certainly many governments have done a great job in putting over the argument that everything is justified because of the virus and anyone who doubts that doesn't understand the problem.

For me the everything is a lot more significant and a lot less desirable than it appears to be for many others, its almost as if the assumption is "Don't worry once the crisis is over, in a few months, everything will go back to as it was".

Bye

Ian



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 30/03/2020 08:38 by IanSmithISA.

Re: O/T Coronavirus and F1
Stu69 30 March, 2020 18:36
A couple of snippets that caught my eye:-
Bill Gates says we can’t restart the economy soon and simply “ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner”
President of Ghana, "We know how to bring the economy back to life. What we do not know is how to bring people back to life".

To me it seems the extreme measures we are taking are worth it even if others are happy for people to die then argue about the validity of the statistics! Do I like isolation no! Plus it is costing be a fortune. BUT my family is still alive!

Germany seem to have an anti-body test they are going to roll out. That will allow people to get back to building BMWs and luxury goods no one will be able to afford in the future!

Re: O/T Coronavirus and F1
CLOVERLEAF 888 30 March, 2020 18:50
Ian, I think you are making a mockery of this virus.... Too much knowledge in your case is a bad thing...

Re: O/T Coronavirus and F1
monty3 31 March, 2020 00:22
next few month people become killers for food!!! money is just rubbish.

Re: O/T Coronavirus and F1
Myvatn 31 March, 2020 09:22
Quote:
IanSmithISA
Good morning,
Quote:
SydneyF1Fan
Ian, when you say 900 Italian deaths should be reported as 180, are you suggesting that the other 720 died from other medical causes, not COVID-19, and that they would have died anyway if they hadn't been infected?

As a general statistical statement yes, Prof Ricciardi is a good starting point if you want to search.

Clearly it can't be applied to a individual day's stats and it may be understated because of age differences in populations and it should be 270 not 180 etc but the basic stats collection point stands.

As to the more general point that I don't "get it", I do "get it" I just have a made different balance of risks assessment.

Certainly many governments have done a great job in putting over the argument that everything is justified because of the virus and anyone who doubts that doesn't understand the problem.

For me the everything is a lot more significant and a lot less desirable than it appears to be for many others, its almost as if the assumption is "Don't worry once the crisis is over, in a few months, everything will go back to as it was".

Bye

Ian
There is a point that I think you are indeed missing: if you reach the point where all (or a very large part of) the hospitals are filled with Covid-19 patients, as it eventually would happen with an uncontrolled epidemic, you would lose the ability to cure people with other health issues, therefore increasing death rates for non-Covid-19 patients too. Also, sadly in some parts of Italy the numbers could actually be underestimated, as the capacity of the system to test people has been far exceeded by the number of cases, and many people have died at home without being tested. Then, of course, you must take into account that most victims were elderly people with pre-existing conditions... It will take time to have a clear picture, but as you can see in this report (in Italian, I am sorry: [www.epiprev.it]) there is indeed a noticeable increase in death rates, especially in the most heavily hit cities (Brescia).

I do agree, however, that the impact on economy and the temporary suspension of basic rights such as freedom of movement must not be underestimated.

Re: O/T Coronavirus and F1
Stu69 31 March, 2020 19:43
Quote:
monty3
next few month people become killers for food!!! money is just rubbish.

It is a good point. I am praying (although I am not religious) that the food chain holds together. So far not too bad in my little part of the UK at least. Hopefully everyone is as lucky round the world although in Africa and India I can see an issue brewing.

Re: O/T Coronavirus and F1
Myvatn 01 April, 2020 17:00
Quote:
Myvatn
Quote:
IanSmithISA
Good morning,
Quote:
SydneyF1Fan
Ian, when you say 900 Italian deaths should be reported as 180, are you suggesting that the other 720 died from other medical causes, not COVID-19, and that they would have died anyway if they hadn't been infected?

As a general statistical statement yes, Prof Ricciardi is a good starting point if you want to search.

Clearly it can't be applied to a individual day's stats and it may be understated because of age differences in populations and it should be 270 not 180 etc but the basic stats collection point stands.

As to the more general point that I don't "get it", I do "get it" I just have a made different balance of risks assessment.

Certainly many governments have done a great job in putting over the argument that everything is justified because of the virus and anyone who doubts that doesn't understand the problem.

For me the everything is a lot more significant and a lot less desirable than it appears to be for many others, its almost as if the assumption is "Don't worry once the crisis is over, in a few months, everything will go back to as it was".

Bye

Ian
There is a point that I think you are indeed missing: if you reach the point where all (or a very large part of) the hospitals are filled with Covid-19 patients, as it eventually would happen with an uncontrolled epidemic, you would lose the ability to cure people with other health issues, therefore increasing death rates for non-Covid-19 patients too. Also, sadly in some parts of Italy the numbers could actually be underestimated, as the capacity of the system to test people has been far exceeded by the number of cases, and many people have died at home without being tested. Then, of course, you must take into account that most victims were elderly people with pre-existing conditions... It will take time to have a clear picture, but as you can see in this report (in Italian, I am sorry: [www.epiprev.it]) there is indeed a noticeable increase in death rates, especially in the most heavily hit cities (Brescia).

I do agree, however, that the impact on economy and the temporary suspension of basic rights such as freedom of movement must not be underestimated.
Further to the study above, ISTAT (Italian national statistic institute) has now released a study showing that in Northern Italy the number of deaths in the first three weeks of March was double in comparison to 2015-19 data. For some cities (Bergamo) it was five times the average (+400%).

Re: O/T Coronavirus and F1
SydneyF1Fan 03 April, 2020 12:34
I read this article with quotes from Prof Ric:

[www.telegraph.co.uk]

He does indeed state that Italian death rate is overstated, with estimate that only 12% directly relate to COVID-19.

However, my reading is that most of the remainder are indirectly related to COVID-19, eg. they had pre-existing medical conditions that accelerated their demise or couldn't receive medical care due to stretched resources.

While I'm sure there are some that died totally independently from CV, it sounds like a minority to me and I think any death that is accelerated or brought on indirectly by CV should be counted in the toll.

Whichever way you cut the numbers, the global death toll from this virus will be devastating. Whether the economic cost of self-isolation and preventative measures will be worth it in the end will be debated for decades and centuries to come.

I think we're going to be locked down for at least 6 months until we build up our testing capability and medical resources to isolate and cope with future outbreaks. Eventually herd immunity will build before a vaccine will bring assured relief (except for the anti-vaxxers).

Once confidence is restored I think the economy will rebound as quickly as it shut down. However we'll be paying off the government debt burden for many years to come.

I also think a high risk that F1 will go bust and collapse, with manufacturers pulling the plug. No chance of races until at least 2021 in my view. A long time before promoters have the confidence to host a race with at least 12 months' lead time to organise.

Stay safe all!



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