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Re: The All New FW43
Posted by: IanSmithISA
Date: 05/12/2019 08:06
Good morning,

I am in a very pessimistic mood today and I fear that;

The 2020 car will be the current car with possibly just one set of upgrades at the start of the year
and rather than all funds being held back and splurged on the 2021 car, this too will based on the minimal possible development.

The reason is that if the article at [www.racefans.net] is correct then F1 is going to shift the Bernie bonuses to a pot based on championship success over the last 10 years. Possibly with a few points for Williams and McLaren for historical success.

As this is not a new idea I fear that it will become reality and this could pretty easily mean the end for Williams as it is currently formed as it is hard to see how they will able to afford to do much more then attend in 2020 and 2021 rather than compete. :-(

If as expected Williams lose 15m this year and as there is no indication that the 2020 budget is going to be larger than this year's then the same losses would be expected in 2020.

I suspect that the reallocation of bonus money along with the prize money for finishing 5th or 6th was part of the argument that has allowed for the current debt levels. If this were true then debt would not be a problem.

Without this being true it is hard to see who would want to lend Williams any money beyond evening out cash flow.

Under these conditions repayment of the existing loan along with a gradual reduction of the overdraft and revolving credit facility would seem likely and this would further reduce the R&D budget.

There has been talk of selling WAE but it is hard to see who would want it as it is so heavily entwined with WGPE.

Another option seems to be the sale of all of the spare land and the factory which would then be leased back. This would probably put Williams back to having no debt, but also with minimal security to offer for any future borrowing.

With Haas still apparently unhappy about Racing Point not being classed as new team and benefiting from prize money not available to Haas and Liberty being more open than Bernie, there doesn't seem to be a chance of a one off favour of about 40m to keep Williams as part of the show.

I suppose the possibility of Renault and Haas leaving and there being fewer teams to split the prize money between could help. But this would mean 3 cars from some teams possibly highlighting the gap between them and the rest and making F1 less attractive to the hosts.

So to me things look gloomy unless a new source of money is found.

Bye

Ian

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